“Cellphones in the Hindu Kush,” The National Interest, No. “And literally, they went bankrupt. NPR's Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Seth Jones about President Trump's claim that the Soviet Union collapsed due to its military operations in Afghanistan. He states, “The United States should thus not expect the Afghan government to defeat the Taliban on the battlefield over the next four years of the administration. As President Reagan predicted nearly a decade before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, democracy would “leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history.” It did. It goes on to state that the extremists "may be fortified" by foreign powers who wish to "sow chaos and disorder" in the US. When the review widened its category from antifa to "left-wing violence," it found 21 victims had been killed since 2010, compared to 117 people killed in right-wing violence, in the same time period. It won’t. As the report concluded: A long and severe war could ravage China’s economy, stall its hard-earned development, and cause widespread hardship and dislocation. On July 16, 1973, Muhammad Daoud Khan overthrew King Zahir Shah, who had ruled the country since 1933, in a coup d’état. This is wrong, but it raises the question of why Moscow did invade. Congressman Charlie Wilson, CIA Director William Casey, and growing support from within the United States. Researchers at the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, and at the Anti-Defamation League, told The Guardian they did not know of any murders linked to antifa in the US in the last 25 years. Its military industrial complex was way too large. Jones is the author of The Rise of European Security Cooperation (Cambridge University Press, 2007). “It’s when they’re cramming people in.”, Jack Detsch is Foreign Policy’s Pentagon and national security reporter. He is author of a book on war in Afghanistan. It is foolish to compare the two countries on this basis. Gen. Anthony Tata as the agency’s top policy official, who caught President Donald Trump’s eye as a Fox News commentator. We Insist: A Timeline Of Protest Music In 2020. Seth Jones of CSIS dissects Trump's claim and, drawing on Soviet archives, lays out the rationale behind Moscow's decisions. 6, No. The results are generally bleak. A U.S. war with China could reduce China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by between 25 and 35 percent and the American GDP by between 5 and 10 percent, according to a rand report. Kathryn Wheelbarger, a former Senate Armed Services Committee staffer for Sen. John McCain, permanently holds the role set for Cutrone but has been serving as an acting assistant secretary for international affairs for more than 18 months. Jones discusses that the United States should have a realistic set of goals for Afghanistan. Corruption, oligarchs, and media concentration have weakened Bulgarian democracy. JONES: No, the facts don't support that the war in Afghanistan broke up the USSR. Does it matter if President Trump gets the history right or wrong? On Christmas Eve 1979, elite Soviet forces began flying into Kabul airport and the military airbase at Bagram. “They were right to be there.” President Trump went on to say that the war in Afghanistan helped trigger the collapse of the Soviet Union. The administration insists any future START treaty has to include Beijing as well as Moscow, but experts say there is almost no chance China will agree. Both countries backed nonstate groups and states to expand their power and influence. Under the Reagan Doctrine, for example, the United States provided overt and covert assistance to anti-Communist governments and resistance movements to roll back Communist supporters across the globe. To do this well, some U.S. policymakers have argued that the United States needs to develop capabilities to fight—and win—conventional and possibly even nuclear wars against these states if deterrence fails. Waging Insurgent Warfare (Oxford University Press, 2016). Seth G. Jones holds the Harold Brown Chair and is director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. AMONG THE Trump administration’s most significant national security decisions has been the shift from counterterrorism to inter-state competition. 82, Winter 2005/2006. In comparison, over that same period, 329 murders were linked to the far-right. On February 15, 1989, the last Red Army units crossed the Termez Bridge into the Soviet Union, ending what Gorbachev had referred to as a “bleeding wound.”. Show full articles without "Continue Reading" button for {0} hours. This type of irregular war was anything but “cold.” There were on average 180,000 deaths per year because of insurgencies from 1950 to 1989, or approximately seven million dead. 4, Spring 2008. During the Cold War, Moscow and Washington confronted a similar bleak reality, which meant that most competition was irregular. Nor will the United States today. An early declaration of the election result from a partisan network—on the left or right—could trigger violence in the United States. A White House official told Foreign Policy that Cutrone was selected as a recognized national security professional to help lead the portfolio, which includes overseeing policy for NATO bloc nations, Africa, and the Middle East. (with Bruce Hoffman). The Soviet Union crumbled because of a complex set of reasons that included: political and ideological factors, including years of relentless suppression of political opposition followed by Gorbachev’s policies of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring); economic challenges from a state-run economy; military factors, including the country’s exorbitant defense spending; and social factors like endemic corruption and the desire of ethnic communities in Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Western republics, and the Baltics to become independent. For Russia, Iran, North Korea and even China, conventional or nuclear war with the United States would be risky and prohibitively costly. Instead, the Taliban—which receives some support from Pakistan, Iran and even Russia—has focused on guerrilla tactics like ambushes, raids, suicide attacks and targeted assassinations. Twitter: @RobbieGramer. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. In addition, these conflicts might escalate to nuclear war, raising the number of dead to millions of civilians, create far-reaching environmental destruction and trigger unthinkable global financial costs. The Soviet invasion increased already-high tensions between Washington and Moscow. 12, No. Seth Jones, a counter-terrorism expert, who helped create the dataset, told The Guardian: "Left-wing violence has not been a major terrorism threat." What are we to make of this debate? But with lawmakers already squeezed into a tight legislative calendar by the coronavirus pandemic, former officials are worried that the administration could be pushing through too many unseasoned bureaucrats into high-level Pentagon roles. U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper sing the national anthem before the Army-Navy football game in Philadelphia on Dec. 14, 2019. Published by the Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With, Lawfare Resources for Teachers and Students, Documents Related to the Mueller Investigation, Litigation Documents & Resources Related to the Travel Ban (Inactive), Litigation Documents & Resources Related to Trump Executive Order on Family Separations (Inactive), Litigation Documents Related to the Appointment of Matthew Whitaker as Acting Attorney General (Inactive), #RealNews on Trump et L'Affaire Russe: A Resource Page (Inactive). In a memorandum released by Attorney General William Barr late in June, it states: "We have evidence that anti-government violent extremists — including those who support the 'Boogaloo,' those who self-identify as Antifa, and others— will pose continuing threats of lawlessness.". [11], On March 21, 2017, Seth G. Jones outlined an Afghanistan foreign policy strategy for the new Trump administration, in the article, “How Trump Should Manage Afghanistan: A Realistic Set of Goals for the New Administration.” (Jones) Jones describes that the current administration faces major issues in Afghanistan. These costs and risks will likely give Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and even Pyongyang pause. Nor did the Soviet Union collapse because of the war in Afghanistan. 3, Spring 2003. The historical evidence shows that Moscow’s decision to withdraw its forces came over half a decade before the collapse of the Soviet Union and centered on domestic concerns. Afghanistan headed toward the abyss. -Stephen Johns (follows Trump, one person told me he retweeted a pro-Trump election day thing but has since deleted it) -Seth Jones (follows Trump, Tomi Lahren) -Hillary Knight (I’m getting conflicting reports about her having liked/shared pro-Trump stuff, but if there was anything there she’s since deleted it, and she was also photographed with a pro-HRC thing, so make of it what you will) And what Soviet leaders say at the time is that their primary reason for going into Afghanistan was because of concerns that the U.S. government, including the CIA, were having significant influence among Afghan leaders. “A Dangerous Peace,” Newsweek, August 9, 2004. The Soviets did not go bankrupt because of Afghanistan. A Covert Action: Reagan, the CIA, and the Cold War Struggle in Poland (W.W. Norton, 2018). The book examines the collapse of the Zahir Shah regime, the rise of the anti-Soviet war, the Afghan civil war in the early 1990s, the Taliban take-over of much of the country in the late 1990s, the U.S-led overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, and the subsequent insurgency.[7]. Both countries backed nonstate groups and states to expand their power and influence. But the current senior administration official told Foreign Policy that Wheelbarger’s ties to McCain, a noted Trump critic, and Mattis were preventing the administration from putting her up for any confirmation. Accuracy and availability may vary. The Soviets used active measures as an offensive instrument of foreign policy to extend Moscow’s influence and undermine U.S. power throughout the world. Instead, the United States and Soviet Union engaged in intense security competition at the irregular level across Latin America, Africa, Asia and Europe. The sidelining of Jones comes as more appointees close to Trump have made headlines, including Lou Bremer, a former Navy SEAL about whom the White House filed notice of its formal intent to nominate as assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict—a role that has been left without a Senate-confirmed appointee for almost a year. The group assessed that the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan threatened the security of the Soviet Union’s southern borders, which the United States and other countries could take advantage of by aiding the Afghan regime. So by saying they were right to be there, either it's a misunderstanding of why the Soviets were actually there, or you're giving them credence to be competing with the United States at that very point and to be worried about the U.S. influence. Moscow, which had been providing military aid to Afghanistan since at least 1955, grew increasingly alarmed about instability in Afghanistan.
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